To begin with, assuming that the Megalopolis success was in fact due to DR’s popularity
there, the manager overlooks the possibility that Ad Lib’s campaign had nothing to do that
popularity. Perhaps the band recently became overwhelmingly popular due to a new hit song
or to a revival of the type of music DR plays. Either scenario, if true, would serve to undermine
the manager’s claim that Ad Lib’s efforts are to be credited for the Megalopolis success.
The manager also overlooks the possibility that one or more factors other than Ad Lib’s
efforts or DWs popularity were instead responsible for the Megalopolis success. For instance,
perhaps DR shared the bill at the concert with another band, whose appearance was the
actual reason for the concert’s success. If so, this fact would seriously weaken the manager’s
claim that the Megalopolis success is attributable to Ad Lib’s efforts and to DR’s popularity in
Megalopolis--whether or not that popularity resulted from Ad Lib’s campaign.
Even assuming that either DR’s popularity or Ad Lib’s campaign, or both, were responsible
for the Megalopolis success, the manager’s claim that this success can be repeated elsewhere
might nevertheless be unwarranted. Megalopolis might not be representative of most dries in
which DR plans to appear in any one of various ways which would adversely impact ticket
sales in other dries. For instance, perhaps DR hails from Mega lopolis and has far more fans in
Megalopolis than any other city. Or, perhaps the kind of ad campaign that is Ad lab’s specialty,
although effective in Megalopolis, would not be effective in most dries.
Finally, in conduding that DR must hire Ad Lib in order to ensure similar success throughout
the country, the manager assumes that Ad Lib’s services are both necessary and sufficient for
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this purpose. Yet the manager has not provided any evidence to substantiate either
assumption. Lacking such evidence, it is just as likely that some other ad agency would be
equally or more effective. Even ifad Lib’s services are necessary to achieve the manager’s
goal, it is entirely possible that Ad Lib’s services would not suffice to ensure similar success
elsewhere--due to the sorts of factors mentioned above that might have contributed to the
Megalopolis success but would not come into play in other dries.
In sum, the manager has not convinced me that DR’s interests would be well served if and
only ifit hires Ad Lib to promote the band throughout the country. To bolster the argument the
manager must rule out all other possible reasons for the success of the Megalopolis concert,
and must show that Ad Lib is capable of achieving similar success in other cities.
Argument 18The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce
the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island.,
should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island’s six moped and bicycle rental
companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of
rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was
achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau’s town council enforced
similar limits on moped rentals."
The author of this editorial recommends that to reduce accidents involving mopeds and
pedestrians Balmer Island’s city council should restrict moped rentals to 30 per day, down from
50, at each of the island’s six rental outlets. To support this recommendation the author cites
the fact that last year, when nearby Torseau Island’s town council enforced similar measures,
Torseau’s rate of moped accidents fell by 50%. For several reasons, this evidence provides
scant support for the author’s recommendation.
To begin with, the author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the
rate of moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the restrictions are enacted.
However, with a restricted supply of rental mopeds people in Balmer might purchase mopeds
instead. Also, the number of pedestrians might increase in the future; with more pedestrians,
especially tourists, the risk of moped-pedestrian accidents would probably increase. For that
matter, the number of rental outlets might increase to make up for the artificial supply
restriction per outlet--a likely scenario assuming moped rental demand does not decline.
Without considering and ruling out these and other possible changes that might contribute to a
high incidence of moped-pedestrian accidents, the author cannot convince me that the
proposed restrictions will necessarily have the desired effect.Next, the author fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in
Torseau’s moped accident rate last year. Perhaps last year Torseau experienced unusually fair
weather, during which moped accidents are less likely. Perhaps fewer tourists visited Tot sean
last year than during most years, thereby diminishing the demand for rental mopeds to below
the allowed limits. Perhaps last year some of Torseau’s moped rental outlets purchased new
mopeds that are safer to drive. Or perhaps the restrictions were already in effect but were not
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enforced until last year. In any event, a decline in Torseau’s moped accident rate during only
one year is scarcely sufficient to draw any reliable conclusions about what might have caused
the decline, or about what the accident rate will be in years ahead.
Additionally, in asserting that the same phenomenon that caused a 50% decline in moped
accidents in Torseau would cause a similar decline in Balmer, the author relies on what might
amount to an unfair analogy between Balmer and Torseau. Perhaps Balmer’s ability to enforce
moped-rental restrictions does not meet Torseau’s ability; if not, then the mere enactment of
similar restrictions in Balmer is no guarantee of a similar result. Or perhaps the demand for
mopeds in Torseau is always greater than in Balmer. Specifically, if fewer than all available
mopeds are currently rented per day from the average Balmer outlet, while in Torseau every
available moped is rented each day, then the proposed restriction is likely to have less impact
on the accident rate in Balmer than in Torseau.
Finally, the author provides no evidence that the same restrictions that served to reduce the
incidence of all "moped accidents" by 50% would also serve to reduce the incidence of
accidents involving "mopeds and pedestrians" by 50%. Lacking such evidence, it is entirely
possible that the number of moped accidents not involving pedestrians decreased by a greater
percentage, while the number of moped-pedestrian accidents decreased by a smaller
percentage, or even increased. Since the author has not accounted for these possibilities, the
editorial’s recommendation cannot be taken seriously.