In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must
show that area residents can afford the new energy-efficient appliances and systems, and that
area commercial demand for electricity will not increase significantly in the foreseeable future.
In order to better evaluate the argument, we would need to know whether the new
energy-efficient technologies are available to businesses as well, and whether area
businesses plan to use them. We would also need more information about expected changes
in the area’s population, and about the condition and energy-efficiency of the three current
electric power plants.
Argument 94
The following appeared in a memo from the human resources department of Rifco Computer
Company to the company president.
"In order to prevent conflicts in the workplace, Rifco Computer Company should require all its
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employees to attend workshops that teach the technique of active listening, a technique in
which people express feelings without assigning blame. This technique has clearly benefited
Terland Publishing Company: five years ago, two hundred recently hired Terland employees
volunteered to participate in a one-day active-listening workshop. Five years later, only five
percent of these employees had filed formal complaints with the human resources department,
whereas the company as a whole had a fifteen percent complaint rate during that period."
This memo’s author concludes that to prevent workplace conflicts at Rifco Computer all
employees should attend active-listening workshops. To justify this conclusion the author
points out that five years ago 200 new workers at Terland Publishing volunteered for a one-day
active-listening workshop, and that since then only 5% percent of those volunteers have filed
formal complaints with Terland’s human-resources department, compared to 15% of Terland’s
overall work force. The argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First of all, the author assumes too hastily that the workshop at Terland, rather than some
other phenomenon, was responsible for the comparatively low incidence of formal complaints
by the workshop volunteers. Perhaps people who volunteer for such workshops tend to have
better interpersonal skills to begin with, and are therefore less likely to find reason to complain
about coworkers in any event. Moreover, a one-day "active listening’’ workshop is unlikely to
have a lasting impact; were the workshop held more recently I would be more willing to accept
the proposition that it was the reason for the low incidence of complaints among its attendees.Secondly, even if the comparatively low incidence of complaints by Terland’s workshop
attendees is attributable to the workshop, the memo’s conclusion rests on the additional
assumption that the incidence of formal complaints is an accurate indicator of the level of
workplace conflict. Yet the incidence of formal complaints might be a function of some other
factor instead---such as an employee’s tenure. New employees might be less prone than other
workers to file formal complaints--possibly for fear of losing their jobs during a probation period.
For that matter, perhaps most serious workplace conflicts calling for formal complaint come to
a head only after many years of tension between workers; if so, this would provide an equally
convincing explanation for the lower incidence of complaints among newer workers.
Thirdly, even if Terland’s workshop volunteers did learn from the workshop to get along
better with coworkers, the author unfairly assumes that similar workshops WIU carry a similar
result at Rifco. Terland is an entirely different business than Rifco; accordingly, perhaps the
ways in which workers at Terland interrelate are unlike those at Rifco. Or perhaps people who
work in publishing are generally more irascible or mercurial than computer-industry workers.
For that matter, perhaps Rifco employees are insufficiently motivated to benefit from the
workshop--for whatever reason. In short, lacking evidence that Rifco employees match the
profile of the volunteers at Terland in terms of the likelihood that they will respond similarly to
similar workshops--the author’s claim that the proposed workshops will prevent workplace
conflict at Rifco is dubious at best.
In sum, the recommendation depends on a series of poor assumptions and is therefore
unpersuasive. To strengthen it the author must consider and rule out all other possible reasons
for the relatively low incidence of complaints by Terland’s workshop attendees. The author
must also show that the incidence of formal complaints is a fair measure of worker conflict.
Finally, the author must show that workers at Rifco are similar to the volunteers at Terland in
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terms of their willingness and ability to respond favorably to the proposed workshops.
Argument 95
The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of
directors of the Fancy Toy Company. "In the last three quarters of this year, under the
leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should
ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat’s place, we should
appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose
profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay
Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon
expect our profits to increase considerably."In this memo a manager at Fancy Toy Company recommends replacing Pat Salvo, the
company’s current president, with Rosa Winnings, who is currently president of Starlight
Jewelry. To support this recommendation the manager points out that Fancy’s profits have
declined during the last three quarters under Pat’s leadership, while Starlight’s profits have
been increasing dramatically. The manager’s argument is unconvincing for several reasons.
First, the manager’s recommendation relies partly on the assumption that Pat was the cause
of Fancy Toy’s declining profits. However, this need not be the case. Perhaps the toy business
is seasonal, and the coming quarter is always the most profitable one. Or perhaps the cost of
materials or labor have increased, and Pat has had no control over these increases. Without
taking into account such possibilities, the manager simply cannot reasonably conclude that Pat
is responsible for Fancy’s declining profits, and that replacing Pat will therefore enhance
Fancy’s profits.
Similarly, the manager’s recommendation assumes that it is Rosa who has been primarily
responsible for Starlight’s profitability. However, the manager provides no evidence to affirm
this assumption. It is entirely possible that all jewelry businesses have prospered recently,
regardless of the abilities of the managers. Or perhaps the costs of precious metals and other
materials have declined in recent years, thereby leading to increased profits for Starlight.
Moreover, perhaps Rosa has only served as president of Starlight for a short while, and it was
her predecessor who is to credit for Starlight’s profitability. Without taking into account these
possibilities, the manager cannot defend the conclusion that it is Rosa who is responsible for
Starlight’s increasing profitability.