In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must
demonstrate that this country’s consumers will in fact decrease their sugar consumption as a
result of their growing awareness of its health risks. The author must also provide dear
evidence that the demand for peanuts and the revenue from peanut production in this country
are likely to match the current demand for sugar and farm revenue from sugar production,
respectively. To better evaluate the argument we would need to compare the two countries’
climatic and soil conditions; we would also need to compare consumer tastes in Palin with
consumer tastes in the author’s country.
Argument 90
The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg’s Chamber of
Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district,
and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun
police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains
constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we
should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize
the declining neighborhoods in our city."
Amburg’s Chamber-of-Commerce president has recommended high-intensity lighting
throughout Amburg as the best means of reducing crime and revitnliT, ing city neighbor hoods.
In support of this recommendation the president points out that when Belleville took similar
action vandalism declined there almost immediately. The president also points out that since
Amburg’s police began patrolling on bicycles the incidence of vandalism has remained
unchanged. The president’s argument is flawed in several critical respects.
First, the argument rests on the unsupported assumption that in BeUeviUe the immediate
decline in vandalism was attributable to the lighting--rather than to some other
phenomenon-and that the lighting has continued to serve as an effective deterrent there.
Perhaps around the same time the city added police units or more after-school youth programs.
Moreover, perhaps since the initial decline vandals have grown accustomed to the lighting and
are no longer deterred by it. Without ruling out other feasible explanations for the decline and
showing that the decline was a lasting one, the president cannot reasonably conclude on the
basis of BelleviUe’s experience that the same course of action would serve Amburg’s
objectives.
Secondly, the president assumes too hastily that Amburg’s bicycle patrol has been
ineffective in deterring vandalism. Perhaps other factors--such as a demographic shift or
worsening economic conditions--have served to increase vandalism while the bicycle patrol
has offset that increase. Thus without showing that all other conditions affecting the incidence
of vandalism have remained unchanged since the police began its bicycle patrol the president
cannot convincingly condude that high-intensity lighting would be a more effective means of240
preventing vandalism.
Thirdly, the president falsely assumes that high-intensity lighting and bicycle patrolling are
Amburg’s only possible means of reducing crime. In all likelihood Amburg has a myriad of
other choices--such as social programs and juvenile legal-system reforms, to name just a few.
Moreover, undoubtedly vandalism is not the only type of crime in Amburg.
Thus unless the president can show that high-intensity lighting will deter other types of crime
as well I cannot take seriously the president’s conclusion that installing high intensity lighting
would be the best way for Amburg to reduce its overall crime rate.
Finally, even if high-intensity lighting would be Amburg’s best means of reducing crime in its
central business district, the president’s further assertion that reducing crime would result in a
revitalization of city neighborhoods is unwarranted. Perhaps the decline of Amburg’s city
neighborhoods is attributable not to the crime rate in Amburg’s central business district but
rather to other factors--such as the availability of more attractive housing in the suburbs. And if
the neighborhoods in decline are not located within the central business district the president’s
argument is even weaker.
In sum, the recommendation is not well-supported. To bolster it the president must show that
BeUeville’s decline in vandalism is lasting and is attributable to the lighting. The president must
also show that lighting would be more effective than any other means at Amburg’s disposal to
reduce not just vandalism but other crimes as well. To better assess the recommendation I
would need to know whether Amburg’s declining city neighbor-hoods are located within the
central business district, and whether any other factors might have contributed to the decline.
Argument 91
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily Newspaper.
"Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine
participated in youth-league softball and soccer, over 80,000 of these young players suffered
injuries. When interviewed for a recent study, youth-league softball players in several major
cities also reported psychological pressure from coaches and parents to win games.
Furthermore, education experts say that long practice sessions for these sports take away
time that could be used for academic activities. Since the disadvantages apparently outweigh
any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized athletic competition for children
under nine."
This letter concludes that Parkville should not allow children under age nine to participate in
organized competitive sports. To support this conclusion, the author points out the increasing
number of children nationwide who become injured during athletic competitions. The author
also cites the fact that in some big dries children report undue pressure from coaches and
parents to win, and that long practice sessions take time away from a child’s academic pursuits.However, the author’s argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, and is
therefore unpersuasive as it stands.
One problem with the argument is that it assumes that the nationwide statistics about the
incidence of sports injuries among youngsters applies equally to Parkville’s children. Yet this
might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons. Perhaps Parkville maintains more
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stringent safety standards than the national norm; or perhaps children’s sporting events in
Parkville are better supervised by adults, or supervised by more adults. Without ruling out such
possibilities, the author cannot justifiably conclude that Parkville has a sports-injury problem to
begin with.
A second problem with the argument is that it unjustifiably assumes that in Parkville parents
and coaches unduly pressure youngsters to win organized athletic competitions. The only
evidence the author provides to substantiate this assumption are the reports from "big city"
children. We are not informed whether ParkviUe is a big city. Perhaps people who live in big
dries are generally more competitive than other people. If so, and if Parkville is not a big city,
then the author cannot justifiably rely on these reports to conclude that the proposed course of
action is necessary.
A third problem with the argument is that it unfairly assumes that children do not benefit
academically from participating in competitive sports. It is entirely possible that such sports
provide children with the sort of break from academics that helps them to be more productive
academically. It is also possible that the competitive drive that these sports might instill in
young children carries over to their academics and spurs them on to perform well in school.
Without considering such potential academic benefits, the author cannot reasonably conclude
that for young children the disadvantages of participating in athletic competition outweigh the
benefits.
In conclusion, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To better evaluate the argument
we would need more information about the incidence of sports injuries among young children
in Parkville. To strengthen the argument the author must demonstrate that ParkviUe’s parents
and coaches exert the kind of pressure on their children reported by "big city" children and, if
so, that this pressure in fact contributes to the sort of problems with which the author is
concerned.
Argument 92
It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth’s ozone layer to thin,
allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth’s surface. At
the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays
its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to
delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that
the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them
from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it
has in the salamander species.