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The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.
"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the
Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although
the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the
decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad
weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of
the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include
music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than
any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket
purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
This letter recommends that Glenville feature modern music, especially the music of
Richerts, at its summer concerts in order to boost advance ticket sales and attendance. To
support this recommendation the letter’s author points out that advance-ticket sales have
declined over the past few years, but that unpredictable weather cannot be the reason for the
decline because "many people attended the concerts even in bad weather." The author
concludes that choice of music must be the reason for the decline, then reasons further that
since Richerts’ recordings are very popular among Glenville residents featuring Richerts’
music at the concerts would boost ticket sales and attendance. I find this argument to be
logically unconvincing in several respects.
As a threshold matter, the author unfairly equates the number of ticket purchasers with the
number of tickets purchased. The author ignores the possibility that the average number of
tickets sold to each purchaser is increasing and, as a result, the total number of tickets is not
declining--or perhaps even increasing. Thus the author cannot convincingly conclude that
Glenville has a ticket-sale problem in the first place.
Even if the actual number of tickets sold in advance has been declining, the author
condudes too hastily that unpredictable weather cannot be the reason for the decline. Perhaps
concert attendees during the past few years have now learned from their experience with bad
concert weather not to purchase advance tickets again. Besides, the mere fact that "many
people" attended concerts in bad weather proves nothing unless the author can show that total
attendance has been lower in bad weather than in good weather.Even assuming unpredictable weather is not the reason for the decline in advance ticket
sales, the author falsely assumes that the decline must be attributable to choice of music. This
"either-or" argument is fallacious in that it ignores other possible causes of the decline. For
example, perhaps during the last few years Glenville has begun its promotional efforts
unusually late. Or perhaps the number of oudets where tickets are available in advance has
declined. For that matter, perhaps Glenville’s demographics are in flux so that the total number
of residents willing and able to attend summer concerts is declining.
Finally, even assuming that choice of music is the true cause of the decline in advance ticket
sales, the author fails to provide adequate evidence that choosing modern music, and
Richerts’ compositions in particular, will boost sales and attendance. The author unfairly
assumes that people who purchase recordings are the same group that would be inclined to
attend live concerts. Lacking evidence that this is the case, the author cannot convince me that
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the proposed course of action will bring about its intended result.
In sum, the argument is logically unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must
fzrst establish a dear causal relationship between the number of people buying advance
tickets and actual concert attendance. The author must also provide evidence--perhaps by
way of a reliable survey--that the "many people" who have attended the concerts in bad
weather are likely to do so again despite their experience. The author must then consider and
eliminate all other possible explanations for the decline. Finally, to better assess the argument
I would need more information about the musical tastes of the Glenville residents who are
most inclined to attend live concerts.
Argument 79
The following is a letter from a professor at Xanadu College to the college’s president.
"The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning program will
enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. This program would allow more students to enroll
in our courses, thereby increasing our income from student tuition. Traditional courses could
easily be adapted for distance learners, as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional
courses for our distance learning trial project last year. Also, by using computer programs and
taped lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in
extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu."In this letter a Xanadu College professor asserts that the development of an extensive
distance-learning program would enhance the college’s reputation, as well as increasing total
enrollment and therefore total tuition income. To support this assertion the professor points out
that in last year’s trial program two traditional courses were easily adapted for distance
learning. Next, the professor reasons that with more free time faculty could engage in
extensive research, which in turn would enhance the college’s reputation. The argument is
flawed in several critical respects.
First of all, the professor’s dalm that an increase in enrollment would result in an increase in
tuition income is warranted only if Xanadu students would be willing to pay a sufficiently high
fee for distance-learning courses. However, it is entirely possible that Xanadu’s distance
learning courses would not command as high a fee as its traditional courses, and that
Xanadu’s total tuition income would actually decline if this less expensive alternative were
available to Xanadu students.
Secondly, the professor’s dual claims about distance learning--that it would enhance
Xanadu’s reputation and that it would increase enrollment and income--might very well be
mutually exclusive altematives. The availability of distance-learning courses might actually
diminish Xanadu’s overall reputation for quality education. Without addressing this issue the
professor cannot justifiably conclude that the distance-learning alternative would achieve both
goals.
A third problem with the argument involves last year’s trial project. Despite the fact that two
particular courses were easily adapted to distance learning, other courses might not be as
adaptable. Common sense informs me that certain courses, especially in the arts, require
hands-on learning to be effective. Thus the professor cannot justify her claim oll the basis of
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the trial project.
Finally, the professor’s claim that distance learning would afford Xanadu faculty more free
time to engage in extensive research raises two problems. First, it is possible that the time
needed for faculty to adapt their courses for distance learning would equal or even exceed the
time they would save by not teaching traditional classes. Second, even if a net time savings
does result, the professor provides no evidence that Xanadu faculty would actually use this
extra free time for research, or that additional research would in fact enhance Xanadu’s
reputation.