Thirdly, even if consumers begin paying as much for Gulf oysters once they become aware of
the bacteria-killing process, the argument’s conclusion that Gulf oyster producers will enjoy
increased profits as a result is unwarranted. Profit is a factor of not only revenue but also costs.
It is entirely possible that the costs of employing this new process for killing bacteria, or other
costs associated with producing Gulf oysters, will offset additional revenue. Besides, a myriad
of other possible occurrences, such as unfavorable regional weather or economic conditions,
might prevent the Gulf oyster producers from being as profitable in the foreseeable future as
the argument predicts.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it the argument’s
proponent must consider and rule out all other possible explanations for the willingness of
California consumers to pay a premium for Atlantic oysters, and must convince me that with
consumer awareness of the bacteria-killing process Gulf oysters will become just as desirable
as Atlantic oysters. To better assess the argument’s claim that profits for Gulf oyster producers
will increase as an end result, I would need to know whether Gulf oyster producers will incur
the expenses involved in killing the bacteria and, if so, the extent to which these expenses will
impinge on the producers’ profits.
Argument 59
The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of "Bargain Brand" Cereals.
One year ago we introduced our first product, "Bargain Brand" breakfast cereal. Our very low
prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies. Although the
companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their
prices, and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we
needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit. Given our success selling cereal,
Bargain Brand should now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food
products as quickly as possible.In this memo the marketing director of Bargain Brand Cereal claims that the company will
continue to make a profit from sales of its cereal, and therefore that the company should
expand its bargain-priced product line to include other foods as well. To support these
assertions, the memo points out that Bargain Brand is still earning a profit from its cereal sales,
despite the fact that major competitors have lowered their cereal prices and plan to offer
bargain-priced cereal brands. On several grounds, this evidence lends little credible support
for the memo’s condusions.
First of all, the mere fact that Bargain Brand is still earning a profit from its cereal sales is not
the key in determining whether its competitors are succeeding. The key instead is the extent to
which Bargain Brand profits have diminished since other companies lowered their cereal
prices. It is entirely possible that Bargain Brand has been less profitable since its competitors
lowered their cereal prices, and that given a little more time these competitors will draw
enough additional sales away from Bargain Brand to render it unprofitable. The fact that the
206
other companies offer the "top brands" is strong evidence that these companies can survive a
prolonged price war and ultimately prevail over Bargain Brand.
Secondly, the memo states that several major competitors plan to offer their own special
bargain brands to compete directly with Bargain Brand. Yet the memo fails to account for this
fact m concluding that Bargain Brand WIU continue to be profitable. In all likelihood, after the
introduction of competing brands Bargain Brand’s profits will diminish even further. Without
providing evidence that this will not occur, the director cannot convincingly conclude that
Bargain Brand will continue to profit from its cereal sales.
Thirdly, based on the fact that Bargain Brand continues to profit from cereal sales, the memo
concludes that Bargain Brand should expand its product line to include other food products.
Yet the memo provides no evidence that Bargain Brand is likely to be profitable in other
markets. Common sense suggests the contrary--that Bargain Brand is unlikely to succeed in
markets in which it has no previous experience or exposure. Without providing evidence as to
how Bargain Brand would overcome natural barriers to entry into other markets, the director’s
conclusion is weak at best.In conclusion, the memo is unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen the argument, the
director must show that Bargain Brand will continue to profit from cereal sales even after its
major competitors introduce their own bargain brands. To better assess the director’s
conclusion that Bargain Brand should expand its line of bargain-priced foods, we would need
more information about the extent of competition and other barriers to entry in those other
markets.
Argument 60
The Mozart School of Music should obviously be the first choice of any music student aware of
its reputation. First of all, the Mozart School stresses intensive practice and training, so that
students typically begin their training at a very young age. Second, the school has ample
facilities and up-to-date professional equipment, and its faculty includes some of the most
distinguished music teachers in the world. Finally, many Mozart graduates have gone on to be
the best known and most highly paid musicians in the nation.
This argument concludes that the Mozart School should be the first choice of any music
student aware of its reputation for (1) its intensive practice requirements for students of all
ages, (2) its outstanding facilities, up-to-date equipment, and distinguished faculty, and (3) the
accomplishments of its graduates. Although the evidence provided strongly suggests that this
school would be an excellent choice for certain prospective students, the conclusion that it
should be the first choice for any prospective music student is indefensible in three respects.
First, the fact that the Mozart School is known for its intensive practice and training regimen
for even the youngest students suggests that the school might be suitable for certain child
proteges, but perhaps not for children for whom a more balanced education would be more
prudent. For that matter, many older students with other interests and activities would no doubt
find the intensity and time commitment that the Mozart program requires unfeasible or
undesirable.