This editorial concludes that a two-year decline in sales of Whirlwind’s video games is about
to reverse itself, and that sales will increase dramatically in the next few months. To justify this
conclusion the editorial’s author cites a recent survey in which video-game players indicated a
preference for games with realistic graphics requiting state-of-the art computers. The editorial
then points out that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games, along with an extensive
advertising campaign aimed at people 10-25 years old---the demographic group most likely to
play video games. I find this argument specious on several grounds.
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First, the author provides no assurances that the survey on which the argument depends is
statistically reliable. Unless the survey’s respondents are representative of the overall
population of video-game enthusiasts, the author cannot rely on it to predict the success of
Whirlwind’s new games. For all we know a significant percentage of the respondents were not
10-25 years of age; for that matter, perhaps the number of respondents was too low to ensure
that they are typical of video-game enthusiasts in that age group.
Secondly, the argument relies on the assumption that the two-year decline in Whirlwind’s
sales is attributable to a problem that Whirlwind’s introduction of its new games and ad
campaign will solve. Yet it is enfixely possible that the decline was due to factors such as
imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management, and that these problems
have not been remedied. In fact, perhaps the same advertising agency that is promoting
Whirlwind’s new games also promoted Whirlwind’s earlier games, and it was the agency’s
inability to attract interest among the key demographic group that caused the decline. Since
the author has not dearly identified the cause of the decline, I cannot be convinced that
Whirlwind’s new strategy will reverse that decline at all let alone dramaticaUy.
Thirdly, even if the ad campaign successfully attracts many 10-25 year-olds to Whirlwind’s
new games, the argument rests on the further assumption that this result will suffice to cause
the predicted sales increase during the next few months. Yet this need not be the case.
Perhaps Whirlwind’s new state-of-the-art games are prohibitively expensive for the key
demographic group. Or perhaps Whirlwind’s competitors are now introducing similar games at
lower prices or with additional features that render them more attractive to video-game
enthusiasts than Whirlwind’s new games. Unless the author can rule out such possibilities, I
simply cannot be swayed by the prediction that Whirlwind is about to experience a dramatic
increase in sales.Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, I remain unconvinced
that the impending increase in sales will occur within the next few months. Perhaps
video-game sales are highly seasonal and Whirlwind will need to wait longer than two months
to see the dramatic increase it expects. If so, the author must modify the prediction
accordingly.
In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide
clear evidence that video-game enthusiasts 10-25 years of age would be interested in
Whirlwind’s new games, and that they could afford to buy them. To better assess the argument
I would need to know (1) what caused the two-year sales decline to begin with, and whether
Whirlwind’s new strategy eliminates that cause; (2) what competing products might serve to
diminish sales of Whirlwind’s new games during the next few months; and (3) when
Whirlwind’s introduction of its new games has occurred in relation to the peak video-game
sales season, if any.
Argument 36
The following appeared in the editorial section of Monroetown’s local newspaper.
"Mayor Brown was recently re-elected by a clear majority of 52 percent of Monroetown’s voters.
Her re-election, however, does not show that most people in our town favored Mayor Brown’s
proposal for tax reduction over that of her opponent, Mr. Greene, who proposed raising taxes
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to improve education. It has been shown that voters nationwide tend to re-elect people already
in office, regardless of candidates’ proposals. In fact, a local survey after the election showed
most people in Monroetown disagreed with Mayor Brown’s proposal. Clearly most people in
Monroetown favor improving education and therefore approve of Mr. Greene’s proposal
despite the fact that they did not vote for him."
The author of this editorial concludes that most Monroetown residents favor Greene’s
proposal to raise taxes in order to improve education over Brown’s proposal to cut taxes, even
though incumbent Brown defeated Greene by way of a 52O/o majority vote in a recent mayoral
election. To support this condusion the author points out a nationwide tendency to reelect
incumbent candidates regardless of their positions. The author also points out that a survey
taken after the election showed that most Monroetown residents oppose Brown’s proposal. As
the following discussion shows, the author’s argument is not well supported by the evidence.First of all, the author unfairly assumes that the nationwide tendency applies specifically to
Monroetown residents. Lacking evidence that Monroetown voters reflect this general tendency,
it is entirely possible that Monroetown residents vote strictly according to their position on the
issues. For that matter, it is possible that Monroetown voters tend strongly to vote against
incumbents, in which case the author’s claim that Monroetown residents oppose Brown’s
proposal would more flagrantly fly in the face of the election results.
Secondly, the author fails to indicate when the statistics showing this nationwide tendency
were collected. The longer the time period between the collection of these statistics and the
election, the greater the possibility that the tendency has changed over this time span, and the
less justifiable the author’s reliance on these statistics to support the claim that Monroetown
residents oppose Brown’s proposal.
Thirdly, the author fails to indicate how much time passed between the Brown-Greene
election and the survey showing that most Monroetown residents oppose her proposal. If the
survey was conducted immediately after the election, then the fact that the election results
conflict with the survey results would cast considerable doubt on the reliability of either to
indicate what proposals Monroetown residents truly support. However, if the survey occurred
long after the election, then the conflict can readily be explained by changing opinions and
demographics over time. In either case, it is impossible to weigh the evidence without more
specific information about percentages. The larger the percentage of Monroetown residents
participating in the election, the greater the extent to which the election results would cast
doubt on the survey results. By the same token, the larger the percentage of Monroetown
residents shown by the survey to oppose Brown’s proposal the more clearly this evidence
would support the author’s argument.