The author of this editorial argues that in order to reduce its rising crime rate the city of
Dalton should establish a 10:00 curfew for minors under age 18. The author also claims that
the curfew would control juvenile delinquency as well as preventing minors from becoming
crime victims. To support these claims the author points out that WiUiamsville established a
similar curfew four months ago, and that since then WiUiamsville’s youth crime rate has
dropped by 27% during curfew hours. The author also points out that in Williamsville’s town
square no crimes have been reported in the last four months, yet Williamsville residents had
previously expressed particular outrage about the square’s high crime rate. I find the editorial
logically unconvincing in several respects.
To begin with, the author has failed to convinceme that Williamsville’s overall crime rate has
declined, or that the curfew was responsible for any such decline. It is entirely possible that
although that city’s youth crime rate has declined, its adult crime rate has risen. If so, this fact
would seriously call into question the author’s claim that a similar curfew would reduce Dalton’s
overall crime rate. Even if Williamsville’s overall crime rate has declined in the last four months,
the decline is not necessarily attributable to the curfew. Perhaps WilliamsviUe has also
enhanced its police enforcement, or established social programs that help minors avoid
delinquency. In short, without evidence that all other conditions that might affect Williamsville’s
crime rate have remained unchanged during the last four months, the author’s claim that the
curfew is responsible for the drop in that city’s crime rate is dubious at best.
Moreover, the evidence involving the town square does not adequately show that
Williamsville’s curfew has been effective in reducing its crime rate. The number of crimes
reported in the square does not necessarily reflect the number actually committed there.
Also, it is entirely possible that Williamsville’s residents had already abandoned the town
square at night by the time WilliamsviUe established the curfew. If so, then the mere fact that
no crimes in the square have been committed or reported recently proves nothing about the
effectiveness of the curfew.
Even if Williamsville’s curfew was responsible for a decline in that city’s overall crime rate,
the editorial’s claim that a similar curfew would be effective in Dalton is unwarranted. Dalton
might differ from Williamsville in ways that would undermine the curfew’s effectiveness in
Dalton. Or perhaps the percentage of crimes that are committed by adults is far greater in
Dalton that in W’filiamsville. In either case, a curfew that is effective in reducing WilliamsviUe’s
overall crime rate might be far less effective in reducing Dalton’s.
Even assuming the proposed curfew would reduce Dalton’s overall crime rate, the author
unfairly infers that the curfew would also curb juvenile delinquency. The author’s definition of
juvenile delinquency might embrace additional behaviors--ones that don’t amount to crimes.
Besides, a reduction in the overall crime rate does not necessarily indicate a reduction in the
youth crime rate.
The author’s further inference that the curfew would protect minors from becoming crime
278
victims is also unwarranted. This inference depends on the assumption that all crimes against
youths occur during curfew hours. Yet common sense informs me that many such crimes
occur during other hours. The inference also rests on the assumption that it is adults who are
committing all crimes against youths. Yet the author fails to account for the possibility that
some crimes against youths are committed by other youths.In sum, the editorial relies on a series of dubious assumptions, which render it wholly
unpersuasive. To bolster the editorial’s claims the author must provide clear evidence that the
curfew, and not some other phenomenon, was in fact responsible for a decline in
WilliamsviUe’s youth crime rate. The author must also show that the curfew would have a
similar effect in Dalton, and that the curfew would result in a decline in not just the youth crime
rate but also the overall crime rate. To better assess the author’s final two claims I would need
to know how the author defines ’juvenile delinquency,’ and what percentage of crimes against
Dalton’s youth are committed by other youths.
Argument 123
The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.
"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new
dormitory. Buckingham’s enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double
over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average
rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will
find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory
would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."
In this memo a dean at Buckingham College recommends that in order to meet expected
enrollment increases the college should build an additional dormitory. To support this
recommendation the dean points out that rental rates for off-campus apartments have been
increasing, thus making it more difficult for students to afford this housing option. The dean
also points out that a new dormitory would attract prospective students to the college. This
argument is problematic in several respects.
A threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the reports about
off-campus rental rates. The dean indicates only that "student leaders" reported these
statistics; the dean provides no information about how these students collected their data. It is
entirely possible that the report was based on an insufficiently small sample, or a sample that
was unrepresentative of the town’s overall student rental market.
Secondly, the dean assumes that this current trend in rental rates will continue in the future;
yet the dean offers no evidence to substantiate this assumption. These rates are a function of
supply and demand, and it is entirely possible that construction of apartment houses will
increase in the future, thereby reducing rental rates along with the need for an additional
dormitory. Without considering this possible scenario, the dean cannot justifiably conclude that
an additional dormitory is needed to meet future demand.
Thirdly, the dean assumes that as enrollment increases the demand for student housing will
also increase. While this might be the case, the dean ignores the possibility that the increased
enrollment will be the result of an increase in the number of students commuting to
279
Buckingham from their parents’ homes. This scenario, if true, would render the dean’s
argument for building a new dormitory untenable.
Yet another problem with the argument involves the dean’s final claim that an attractive new
dormitory would attract prospective students to Buckingham. Even assuming students in fact
choose colleges on this basis, by relying on this evidence the dean essentially provides an
argument against building the new dormitory. If an attractive new dormitory would increase
demand for dormitory space, this fact would only serve to undermine the dean’s conflicting
claim that the new dormitory would help meet increasing demand for dormitory space.
In conclusion, the dean’s recommendation is not well supported. To strengthen it the dean
must provide clear evidence that average rental rates for off-campus student apartments have
in fact been increasing, that this trend will continue in the future, and that this trend will in fact
result in an increased demand for dormitory housing.Argument 124
The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company.
"When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees
assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off
employees have benefited greatly from Delany’s services: last year those who used Delany
found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that
we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake
because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at
that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its
bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany’s clients took an
average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh’s clients took nine."
This XYZ company memo recommends that XYZ continue to use Delany instead of Walsh
as its personnel service for helping laid-off XYZ employees find new jobs. To support this
recommendation the memo points out that 8 years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half
of XYZ’s laid-off workers found new jobs within a year. The memo also points out that last year
XYZ employees using DeNny’s services found jobs much more quickly than those who did not,
and that the average DeNny client found a job in 6 months, compared to 9 months for the
average Walsh client. The memo also mentions that DeNny has more branch offices and a
larger staff than Walsh. I find the memo’s argument unconvincing for several reasons.
To begin with, Walsh’s prior rate of placing laid-off XYZ employees is not necessarily a
reliable indicator of what that rate would be now. Perhaps the placement rate 8 years ago was
due to a general economic downturn or some other factor beyond Walsh’s control. For that
matter, perhaps the rate was relatively high among all placement services during that time
period. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons for Walsh’s ostensi bly low
placement rate 8 years ago, and without convincing me that this rate was low to begin with, the
memo’s author cannot convince me on the basis of XYZ’s past experience with Walsh that
XYZ should favor DeNny over Walsh.
The memo also makes two hasty assumptions about the benefits of DeNny’s services last
year. One such assumption is that these services were in fact responsible for helping the
280
laid-offXYZ employees who used those services find jobs more quickly. It is entirely possible
that the comparative success of this group was due instead to their other aggressive
job-seeking efforts, which might even have included using Walsh’s services--m addition to
DeNny’s. Also, the memo unfairly equates the speed with which one finds a job with
job-seeking success. Common sense informs me that the effectiveness of a job search
depends not only on how quickly one finds a job, but also on compensation, benefits, location,
and type of work.
Furthermore, the difference in the two firms’ overall placement time last year does not
necessarily indicate that DeNny would be the better choice to serve XYZ’s laid-off employees.
These employees might have particular skills or needs that are not representative of the two
firms’ clients in general. Besides, a single year’s placement statistics hardly suffices to draw
any firm conclusions. Last year might have been exceptional--perhaps due to some unusual
event that is unlikely to reoccur, such as a major employer’s move to an area that DeNny
serves, or out of an area that Walsh serves.