Finally, the editorial’s claim overlooks the fact that local arts education embraces not just
high school drama but also drama programs at lower levels, and music, dance, and visual and
graphic-arts programs. Thus even if the board’s decisions indicate that they place a low priority
on high-school drama education, it is entirely possible that the board is reallocating resources
from that program to other arts programs. If so, then the editorial’s claim is wrong, and the
proper conclusion is that the board is actively concerned about promoting arts education as a
whole in local schools.
In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the editorial’s author
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must at the very least assure me that the current board members have been on the board long
enough to have adequate opportunity to demonstrate their level of concern for arts education,
and that they have the authority to do so. The author should also provide clear evidence that
the decisions of these board members were responsible for the declining student participation
in drama programs. To better assess the argument I would need to know the reason why the
board has not renewed the current drama director’s contract. I would also need to know what
percentage of the high school’s current budget is allocated not just to drama programs but to
arts education generally, so that I could compare that percentage with the percentages
allocated to other programs.
Argument 115
The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that
manufactures tools and home appliances.
"Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call
attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students
showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks
and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company’s extensive advertising in magazines during
the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we
should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song."
In this memo Eco-Power’s sales manager recommends that the company switch from print
ads to ads with catchy songs in order to reverse its declining profits. To support this
recommendation the memo cites the fact that most high-school students easily recognize
tunes used to advertise leading soft-drinks and fast-food restaurants. However, the argument
is unconvincing in light of several problems.
A threshold problem with the argument is that the author assumes that the current ad strategy
is the cause of Eco-Power’s declining profits. The author provides no evidence that this is the
case. It is entirely possible that other factors are responsible for the decline. Perhaps the
demand for all tools and home appliances generally has slowed; or perhaps Eco-Power’s
management or pricing policies are to blame. Without ruling out such possibilities, the author
cannot persuade me that switching ad strategies would reverse Eco-Power’s declining profits.
Another problem with the argument involves the memo’s reliance on the high rate of
tune-recognition among teenagers. For two reasons, this evidence lends little credible support
for the recommended strategy. First, even if Eco-Power were to achieve a high rate of
tune-recognition among teenagers, this demographic group is not the same group that
purchases tools and home appliances. Secondly, even assuming Eco-Power can achieve a
high tune-recognition rate among its target demographic group, this fact alone is no guarantee
that these consumers would be more likely to buy Eco-Power products as a result of
recognizing the company’s tunes.A third problem with the argument is that it assumes that the increased sales due to a high
tune-recognition rate would outweigh the costs of achieving this rate. However, a tune can be
communicated only via such media as radio and television; and real-world experience informs
us that these advertising media are more costly than print media. Although leading soft-drink
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and fast-food companies can well afford the costs of producing effective tunes and of ensuring
that these tunes are heard again and again by many, many consumers, Eco-Power might lack
the resources to ensure the sort of tune recognition which these other companies have
achieved. Unless the sales manager can convince us that the proposed ad strategy will be
cost effective, his conclusion that this strategy will result in increased profits for Eco-Power is
untenable.
In condusion, the sales manager has not provided a convincing argument for the proposed
ad strategy. To strengthen the argument the manager must show that the current ad strategy is
in fact the cause of Eco-Power’s declining profits. The manager must also provide strong
evidence that the people who buy the kinds of tools Eco-Power sells would hear the
company’s tunes frequently enough to immediately associate the tune with the company, and
that this association would cause these listeners to buy Eco Power products. Finally, to better
evaluate the argument we would need a detailed cost benefit analysis of the proposed ad
strategy.
Argument 116
The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping
malls throughout the country.
"The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is
now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section
of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition.
Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a
new quality-control manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we
should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the
access roads for all our new shopping malls."
The vice president of a company that builds shopping malls argues here that the company
should hire Appian rather than McAdam to build access roads for the company. To support this
argument the vice president points out that a certain area of Route 101 that McAdam repaved
two years ago has deteriorated significantly, while a certain stretch of Route 66 that Appian
repaved four years ago remains in good condition. The vice president also points out that
Appian recently acquired new state-of-the-art paving equipment and hired a new
quality-control manager. I find the vice president’s argument logically unconvincing--in several
respects.First of all, it is unfair to infer based solely on the comparison between the two stretches of
highway that Appian does better work than McAdam. The inference relies on the poor
assumption that the comparative qnality of two contractors’ work, rather than some other
phenomenon, was responsible for the comparative condition of the two stretches of pavement.
Perhaps the stretch that McAdam repaved is located in an area whose extremes in climate or
high traffic volume serve to erode and damage pavement very quickly. For that matter, perhaps
soil or other geological conditions in that area were primarily responsible for deterioration of
the pavement along that stretch. In short, without showing that all other conditions in the two
areas have been essentially the same, the vice president cannot convince me that the quality
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of McAdam’s and Appian’s repaying work was responsible for the difference in how well the
two stretches of pavement have held up.
Secondly, it is unfair to conclude based on Appian’s recent equipment acquisition and
personnel decision that Appian will do a better job than McAdam. Perhaps McAdam has also
acquired the same type of equipment. Moreover, perhaps McAdam’s quality-control manager
is far more experienced than Appian’s new manager, and as a result McAdam’s product is
likely to be better than Appian’s. Besides, equipment and on-site management are only two of
many factors affecting the quality of a pavement job. Other such factors include the experience
and competence of other workers, and the paving material used. Without showing that the two
firms are similar in these and other respects, the vice president cannot justify his
recommendation of Appian over McAdam.
Finally, the vice president’s recommendation rests on the unlikely assumption that the
company has only two altematives--McAdam and Appian. In all likelihood the company can
engage one of many other paving contractors instead. Thus to the extent the vice president
recommends Appian over not just McAdam but over any other contractor the recommendation
is unwarranted.
In sum, the vice president has not convinced me that the company should hire Appian. To
strengthen the argument the vice president must provide dear evidence that it was the quality
of McAdam’s and Appian’s work rather than one or more other factors--that resulted in the
difference between how well the two stretches of pavement have held up over time. The vice
president must also provide better evidence that Appian’s new equipment and new manager
will enhance, or at least maintain, the quality of Appian’s overall work at a higher level than
McAdam’s overall work. Finally, to better assess the argument I would need to know what
other paving contractors the company could hire, and the quality of those contractors’ work
compared to McAdam’s and Appian’s.
Argument 117
The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.