People tend to be more impressed by evidence that seems to confirm some relationship. Thus many are convinced that their dreams are prophetic (预言的) because a few have come true but they neglect or fail to notice the many that have not.
Consider also the belief that “the phone always rings when I’m in the shower.” If it does ring while you are in the shower, the evident will stand out and be remembered. If it doesn’t ring, that nonevent probably won’t even register (留下印象).
People want to see order, pattern and meaning in the world. Consider, for example, the common belief that things like personal misfortunes, plane crashes, and deaths “happen in threes”. Such beliefs stem from the tendency of people to allow the third event to define the time period. If three plane crashes occur in a month, then the period of time that counts as their “happening together” is one month; if three crashes occur in a year, the period of time is stretched. Flexible end points reinforce such beliefs.
We also tend to believe what we want to believe. A majority of people think they are more intelligent, more fair-minded and more skilled behind the wheel of an automobile than the average person. Part of the reason we view ourselves so favorably is that we use criteria that work to our advantage. As economist Thomas Schelling explains, “Everybody ranks himself high in qualities he values: careful divers give weight to care, skilled drivers give weight to skill, and those who are polite give weight to courtesy,” This way everyone ranks high on his own scale.
Perhaps the most important mental habit we can learn is to be cautious in drawing conclusions. The “evidence” of everyday life is sometimes misleading.
1. In the first paragraph the author states that ______.
A. dreams cannot be said to be prophetic even though a few have come true.
B. dreams are prophetic because some of them did come true.
C. dreams may come true if clearly remembered.
D. dreams and reality are closely related.
2. By “ things like …” “happen in three” the author indicates that people believe ______ .
A. personal misfortunes tend to happen every now and then
B. personal misfortunes, plane crashes and death usually happen together.
C. Misfortunes tend to occur according to certain patterns
D. Misfortunes will never occur more than three times to a person in his lifetime
3. The word “courtesy” probably means _______ .
A. good manners B. appropriate speech
C. friendly relations D. satisfactory service
4. what can be inferred from the passage?
A. Happenings that go unnoticed deserve more attention
B. In a series of misfortunes the third one is usually the most serious.
C. People tend to make use of evidence that supports their own beliefs.
D. Believers of misfortunes happening in threes are cautious in interpreting events
5. It can be concluded from the passage that _______ .
A. there is some truth even in the wildest dreams
B. one should take notice of other people’s merits
C. there is no order or pattern in world events
D. we should not based our conclusions on accidental evidence
参考答案. A C A A D
人们往往对那些似乎能证明某种关联的证据留下更加深刻的印象，因此由于几次梦中的情节变成了现实，所以很多人都相信了他们的梦境能够预言未来。但是，他们却忘记或者没有留意到很多的梦境都没有成为现实。
再想想“电话总在我洗澡的时候响起”这一观点。如果电话的确在你洗澡的时候响起，这一证据便凸显出来成为记忆；如果你洗澡的时候电话没有响起，未发生的事情却不会给你留下任何印象。
人们想找到世界的秩序，模式及意义。比如，人们常常相信个人不幸、飞机失事和死亡（这样的不幸会）祸不单行。这样的认识产生的根源是人们倾向于用第三次事件来定义时间区间。如果三次飞机失事发生在一个月之内，人们就会把“祸不单行”的时间区间算作一个月；如果三次飞机失事发生在一年之内，人们就会把“祸不单行”的时间区间延长到（一年）。时间区间上的变通强化了这种看法。
我们往往也相信我们（主观上）想相信的事情。绝大多数人都会认为他们更聪明，更公正；认为他们驾车技术比一般人高。我们看高自己的原因之一是我们采用对我们有利的（评判）标准。正如经济学家Thomas Schelling所说：“每个人都会在自己强调的品质上给自己打高分：小心的驾驶员会强调谨慎，技术娴熟的驾驶员强调技术，而那些礼让的驾驶员则强调礼貌。”这样，人人都按自己的标准给自己打高分。
也许，我们可以学到的最重要的思维习惯是小心得出结论。日常生活中的“证据”有时是误导性的。
