The argument also assumes unfairly that last year’s increase in the number of patients
reporting respiratory problems indicates worsening environmental problems in Clear view.
Perhaps the actual incidence of such health problems has not increased, and the reported
increase is due to increasing awareness among Clearview residents of respiratory problems.
Even if the incidence of respiratory problems has in fact increased, the increase might due to
an influx of people with pre-existing such problems, or to more effective cigarette marketing.
Since the editorial fails to rule out these and other possible explanations for the increase, I
cannot accept any conclusions about Clearview’s environment let alone about who voters
should elect to city council based on last year’s hospital records.
Even if the two cited increases do indicate a worsening of Clearview’s environment due to
the city council’s decisions, the argument rests on the further assumption that Braun was a
factor in those decisions. But, since the editorial provides no evidence to substantiate this
assumption it is equally possible that Braun actually opposed the decisions that were
responsible for these increases. Thus without better evidence that Braun contributed to key
decisions adversely effecting Clearview’s environment the editorial remains unconvincing.
Even assuming that Braun was at least partially responsible for the two increases, and that
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those increases indicate a worsening environment, the editorial provides no clear evidence
that Green would be effective in reversing that trend let alone more effective than Braun. The
mere fact that Green is a member of the Good Earth Coalition hardly suffices to prove her
willingness and ability to help solve Clearview’s environmental problems, at least not without
more information about that coalition and Green’s involvement in it.
Finally, even if Green would in fact be more effective than Braun in solving Clearview’s
environmental problems, the author provides no firm evidence that electing Green is
necessary to solve those problems, or that electing Green would suffice. Perhaps another
candidate, or another course of action, would be more effective. Even if Green does everything
in her power as city-council member to solve these problems, perhaps additional
measures--such as replacing other council members, state legislators, or even the state’s
governor--would also be required in order to achieve Clearview’s environmental objectives.In sum, the editorial’s author cannot justify his or her voting recommendation on the basis of
the scant evidence provided in the editorial. To bolster the recommendation the author must
provide better evidence that (1) Clearview has environmental problems to begin with, (2)
Green would be more effective than either Braun or any other candidate in solving those
problems, and (3) electing Green would suffice to solve those problems. To better assess the
argument I would need to know the scope of the city council’s authority respecting
environmental decisions. I would also need to know Braun’s voting record on environmental
issues, Green’s experience and position on those issues, and the voters’ other
choices--besides Green and Braun.
Argument 7
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at
Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a
relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent
increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased
sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year
olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and
concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
This Omni, Inc. memorandum recommends that Omni buy snack-food manufacturer Mesa
Foods and aggressively promote its brand of salsa nationwide. To support this
recommendation the memo relies on the exceptional profitability of Mesa’s salsa during the
last three years, along with the fact that Mesa’s overall profits were up last year. However, the
recommendation relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it
unconvincing as it stands.
First of all, the memo indicates that Omni is interested in selling to 14-to-25 year-olds.
Accordingly, the argument rests on the assumption that Mesa’s snack foods appeal to this age
group. Yet, we are not informed what types of snack foods Mesa manufactures, aside from its
salsa. It is entirely possible that Mesa’s foods, including its salsa, appeal primarily to other age
groups. If this is the case, the recommended acquisition would not serve Omni’s goal.
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Secondly, the argument rests on the assumption that in the region where Mesa’s products
are sold the preferences of consumers between the ages of 14 and 25 typify nationwide
preferences among this age group. If this is not the case, then it is entirely possible that Omni
would not sell enough Mesa snack foods, including its salsa, to earn a profit from its Mesa
operation. Thus, without more marketing information about the snack-food tastes of 14-to-25
year-olds nationwide it is difficult to assess the merit of the memo’s recommendation.
Even if the memo’s author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, the author overlooks
the possibility that last year’s 20% increase in Mesa’s profits was an aberration, and that in
most other years Mesa has not been profitable. Also, the 20% increase might have been due
entirely to sales of Mesa’s salsa, and aside from the profit from salsa sales Mesa’s profitability
is actually declining. If either is the case, and if Mesa’s salsa does not turn out to be popular
among 14-to-25 year-olds across the nation, then Omni is unlikely to profit from the
recommended course of action.In condusion, the recommendation is not well supported. To convince me that the Mesa
Foods acquisition would be profitable Omni would need to provide clear statistical evidence
that Mesa’s snack foods, and its salsa in particular, would appeal to 14-to-25 year-olds
nationwide. To better evaluate the recommendation, I would need more information about
Mesa’s profitability over a longer time period, and about the extent to which Mesa’s salsa
accounts for any such profitability.
Argument 8
The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged
students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega
professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade
averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the
grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as
successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its
graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of
professors."
In this memo Omega University’s dean points out that Omega graduates are less successful
in getting jobs than Alpha University graduates, despite the fact that during the past 15 years
the overall grade average of Omega students has risen by 30%. The dean also points out that
during the past 15 years Omega has encouraged its students, by way of a particular procedure,
to evaluate the effectiveness of their professors. The dean reasons that this procedure
explains the grade-average increase, which in turn has created a perception among employers
that Omega graduates are less qualified for jobs. On the basis of this line of reasoning the
dean concludes that to enable Omega graduates to find better jobs Omega must terminate its
professor-evaluation procedure. This argument contains several logical flaws, which render it
unconvincing.